Abstract:
The surging interest in classic cars in the US brought on by the Baby Boomer generation and their interest in cars from the 1950s, 1960s and early 1970s has also brought with it the curiosity to determine how many of these classics are actually left on the planet. The establishment of the rarity of the collectible item is critically important for both valuation and the allocation of resources for preservation purposes. Existing auto survival estimation methods range from insurance actuary models to researching the state auto registration records. None of these methods is sufficient for the classic car markets due to such factors as appreciating values and barn finds (sudden discoveries of collectable automobiles stored or forgotten and not registered for many years). This research proposes a new method using components of several distinct disciplines including Americana or American popular culture, Econometrics and Consumer Research to determine how many of these classic cars still exist. These multiple disciplines are operationalized using cross-reference data on classic car pricing and theories on why cars become classics including generational interest in specific classic car years. The method also examines some of the factors leading to vintage cars increasing in interest and value over time. Using this methodology will lead to more accurate classic car valuations and would be welcomed by classic car collectors and consumer-oriented economists alike. It also sheds much light on classis car culture in America and why this is so important to the study of American culture in general. |
